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07/21/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A battle between 44-year-old left-handers is on tap for tonight as Jamie Moyer and the Philadelphia Phillies play the third of four straight games against David Wells and the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.
The matchup of ageless wonders will be the second-oldest combined pitching matchup in league history, as Moyer and Wells sport a combined age of 88 years and 307 days.
That falls short of a June 8, 1987 meeting between Phil Niekro and Don Sutton, who were a combined age of 90 years and 135 days when they clashed.
Tonight's game will also mark the fifth time this season that Moyer has faced a pitcher over the age of 40. He has squared off against Randy Johnson (43) and Tom Glavine (41) twice each.
Moyer will attempt to halt a three-game losing streak tonight that includes a horrendous outing on Monday. Moyer was blitzed for 10 runs on 10 hits over 5 1/3 innings of a 10-3 setback against the Dodgers. The defeat moved his record to 7-8 on the season while ballooning his earned run average to 4.99.
The longtime American League hurler has faced the Padres 13 times in his career and is 5-5 with a 4.35 ERA. He beat San Diego in his only start against them last year.
Wells, meanwhile, will put a personal four-game undefeated streak on the line with tonight's start. He is 2-0 over that span and defeated the New York Mets on Monday after limiting New York to one run and seven hits over six innings. The victory pushed the left-hander's record to 5-5 with a 4.15 ERA.
Currently appealing a seven-game suspension, Wells has made four career starts against the Phillies and is 2-1 against them with a 4.33 ERA.
Never shy of emotion himself, Wells will be pitching in front of an emotional Petco crowd, as the Padres are slated to hold a pregame ceremony to dedicate a statue of Hall of Fame inductee Tony Gwynn. Gwynn will be inducted into the Hall on July 29 along with Orioles great Cal Ripken Jr.
Gwynn spent 20 seasons with the Padres, who are honoring the 15-time All-Star all weekend with a variety of in-stadium giveaways. In that span, the outfielder tied a National League record with eight batting titles, matching Honus Wagner's mark.
Just the 17th player in league history to spend an entire career of 20-or-more seasons with one club, Gwynn, also known as "Mr. Padre", retired with a career batting average of .338 with 3,141 hits in 2,440 games.
The Padres could have used Gwynn on Friday, as the Phillies posted a 7-3 victory to even this series at one game apiece.
Chase Utley and Ryan Howard each went 2-for-4 in the victory, with Utley launching a two-run homer and Howard driving in a run of his own. It was just Philadelphia's second win in six games, but moved them back to .500 at 48-48.
Adam Eaton (9-6), making his first start against his former team, gave up just two runs on seven hits with three walks and six strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings to earn the win. He spent his first six seasons in San Diego before playing with Texas last year and then joining the Phils through free agency.
Adrian Gonzalez drove in a pair of runs for the Padres, who had won four of five coming into the contest. San Diego currently leads the National League West by just a percentage point over second-place Los Angeles.
Justin Germano (6-4) got the loss as he was charged with four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings.
Catcher Josh Bard will be eligible to return from his two-game suspension tonight. Bard's suspension came after he made contact with an umpire back on May 31 in Pittsburgh.
San Diego and Philadelphia are meeting for the first time with this series since the Padres won four of six games during the 2006 campaign. The Phillies, though, are 14-6 in their last 20 matchups with San Diego.
<< Bonds may sit as Giants resume set with Brewers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the MLB commissioner looking on, Barry Bonds will
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afternoon when the San Francisco Giants play the middle portion of their
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<< Beltran, Mets hold off Dodgers
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Beltran homered for the second
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David Wr
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San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chase Utley went 2-for-4 with a two-run home
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Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major league strikeout leader Erik Bedard
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Coliseu
Rockies continue series with Nationals >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mexican veteran Rodrigo Lopez goes for a third straight
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Lopez, who'll be 32 in December, defe
Pujols, Cards resume set with Braves >>
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Louis Cardinals to a victory tonight when the club plays the third game of its
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Pujols homered for the fifth t
Reds aim to rebound against Marlins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Young left-hander Bobby Livingston goes for his third win
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Reds visit Dolphin Stadium for game three of a four-game series with the host
Florida Ma
Cubs hope to prove they are kings of the Hill versus Arizona >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lefty Rich Hill can put a little more distance between
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Diamondbacks in game two of a three-game weekend set at Wrigley Field.
Hill, a 27-year-old
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting