No. 21 LSU escapes late charge from Yates, No. 18 UNC

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/05/2010 - Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - T.J. Yates led 18th-ranked North Carolina to a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns and nearly a third on the final play of the game, but it wasn't enough for the short-handed Tar Heels, as No. 21 LSU barely held on for a 30-24 win at the Georgia Dome.

The Heels were without 13 players for the season-opener. Seven of those were for violations of school or NCAA rules and six others were kept out while the investigation continues into possible violations of North Carolina law involving sports agents.

Yates had over 400 yards passing, with over half of that being reeled in by Jheranie Boyd, but the Tigers (1-0) were able to thwart the final pass to the end zone.

It all seemed lost for the Tar Heels (0-1) after Yates was sacked from the blind side by Tyrann Mathieu, and the Tigers recovered at the UNC 39 with 1 1/2 minutes left. But Stevan Ridley fumbled the ball away on third down, giving UNC life again.

Boyd made a key 21-yard catch, and Yates followed that with a 20-yarder to the sideline for Joshua Adams. A nine-yard connection to senior tight end Zack Pianalto put the ball at the six with six seconds left. The two tried hooking up again in the back of the end zone, but Pianalto couldn't hold on.

That gave Yates a last try with two seconds left. He looked for Pianalto over the middle, just over the goal line, but the pass fell incomplete as linebacker Stefoin Francois impeded the tight end's progress with his left hand. Yates motioned for a penalty flag, but none came and LSU coach Les Miles breathed a sigh of relief.

Jordan Jefferson completed 15-of-21 passes for 151 yards with a pair of touchdowns and was picked off once for the Tigers, who won their eighth straight season-opener. They've won 30 straight non-conference games in the regular season, the longest in the nation.

Patrick Peterson set an LSU record for combined return yards with 257. His 244 return yards in the first half was an SEC record for a half.

Yates finished 28-of-46 for 412 yards and three scores. Boyd made six grabs for 221 yards, including a 97-yard TD, which was the longest play from scrimmage in the UNC history.

Defensive tackle Marvin Austin, who had already been suspended by head coach Butch Davis for violating team rules, was one of the players ruled ineligible for UNC. The others are cornerbacks Charles Brown and Kendric Burney, wide receiver Greg Little and defensive ends Michael McAdoo and Robert Quinn, and safety Deunta Williams. The six others who were withheld from Saturday's game were tailbacks Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston, defensive end Linwan Euwell and safeties Brian Gupton, Da'Norris Searcy and Jonathan Smith.

Josh Jasper's 44-yard field goal try clanked off the right upright for LSU early in the first quarter. UNC then fumbled the ball away, which led to Jefferson's six-yard TD pass to Russell Shepard.

Yates tied the game early in the second on a nine-yard TD pass to Devon Ramsay.

Casey Barth's 20-yard field goal moved UNC to a 10-7 edge with 8:24 left in the second, but just 18 seconds later Shepard broke off a 50-yard TD run.

A high snap through the end zone gave LSU a safety less than a minute later, and Peteron rumbled 87 yards on a punt return for a 23-10 margin with four minutes left in the half.

Jefferson's 51-yard TD strike to Rueben Randle widened the gap to 30-10 with 2:28 to go in the second quarter.

Ridley fumbled the ball away deep in UNC territory early in the third and UNC pulled closer in the fourth. Yates, off play action, threw a 97-yard bomb down the middle to Boyd with 10:34 left in the game.

A 14-yard TD pass from Yates to freshman Erik Highsmith made it 30-24 with 2:32 to go.

Game Notes

The last time LSU lost a non-conference regular season game was at Virginia Tech in 2002...LSU is 8-1 all-time at the Georgia Dome...The Tigers went 9-4 last year, losing to Penn State in the Capital One Bowl...The Tar Heels finished 8-5 last season, falling to Pittsburgh in the Meineke Car Care Bowl...The Tigers set a school record for consecutive wins in season-openers, breaking the record of seven straight wins from 1963-69 under head coach Charles McClendon...LSU won its 14th straight game in the month of September.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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