Here's hoping a sad end doesn't turn tragic

Basketball Betting Lines

03/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Age guarantees a lot of things.

It's almost a give-and-take process. A lot of physical attributes like speed, strength and reaction time slow at the same time one's knowledge and wisdom are expanding.

It's almost a cruel joke, one that Allen Iverson is going through right now.

What "Father Time" doesn't guarantee is maturity, a learned rather than instinctual behavior that is never determined by one's age.

Iverson was an immature 17-year-old teenager in 1993 when he was convicted for his part in a Hampton, Virginia bowling alley brawl that left him incarcerated for four months. The case became a bit of a cause-celebre after he was convicted as an adult of the felony charge of maiming by mob, a rarely used Virginia statute that was originally designed to combat lynching.

After Iverson spent four months at a correctional facility in Newport News, Va., he was granted clemency by then Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder, and the Virginia Court of Appeals eventually overturned the conviction in 1995 for insufficient evidence. By most accounts, Iverson was railroaded, likely because of the color of his skin.

Nearly 20 years later, Iverson might as well be that same teenager. People close to the mercurial guard have pointed to his ordeal in Virginia as the one that shaped adult years that have been dotted with the same signs of immaturity.

It didn't have to be like that. Unlike a lot of young African-Americans, Iverson got a second chance. In fact, calling his career a second chance is a bit of an understatement considering Iverson has been paid over $153 million dollars to play basketball over the last 15 years.

Evidently, you can't buy maturity.

In 1997, A.I. Was a 22-year-old when he was pinched on misdemeanor charges of marijuana and gun-possession, resulting in a plea bargain that carried three- years probation.

At 25, his immaturity resurfaced when he recorded a rap CD with lyrics that mocked homosexuals and embarrassed his employer.

In 2002, when Iverson was 27, he allegedly broke into a West Philadelphia apartment and threatened two men with a gun while looking for his estranged wife Tawanna, resulting in terroristic threats charges.

A year later a member of Cru-Thick, Iverson's posse, was shot in the leg in the Old City section of Philly and police believed Iverson may have also been targeted.

In 2005, Iverson was served with a civil lawsuit when two men claimed his bodyguard beat them in a Washington D.C. nightclub and one of the men was awarded over a quarter of a million dollars.

Last week, just months after reuniting with his old team, Iverson was sent home by the Philadelphia 76ers. The cover story this time was Iverson's 4- year-old daughter, Messiah, who is suffering from a still undisclosed illness,

In his last absence from the team before the release, Iverson was spotted at the Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association tournament in Charlotte, N.C., reportedly for a fund-raising commitment that included partying with hip-hop star Jermaine Dupri, far away from his daughter in Atlanta.

The latest blow to A.I. came on Tuesday when Tawanna Iverson filed for divorce in Fulton County, Ga. Superior Court.

The newspaper also reported that several NBA sources have confirmed Iverson has been troubled by excessive drinking and has a number of outstanding civil lawsuits filed against him.

For once I'm not worried about Iverson's legendary selfishness, his stunning lack of maturity and a reputation as a coach-killer.

His personal life is starting to resemble a runaway train, and I'm hoping a sad end on the basketball floor doesn't turn into a tragic one off it.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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