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04/09/2009 - Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brendan Shanahan scored the shootout winner, and the New Jersey Devils wrapped up the Atlantic Division title in a 3-2 win against the Ottawa Senators at Scotiabank Place.
The Devils needed just a point to win the division for the third time in four seasons and did so even before Shanahan lit the lamp by way of Philadelphia's loss to the Rangers earlier in the evening. However, the triumph did give New Jersey its franchise-best 50th win of the season.
New Jersey is now firmly locked into the Eastern Conference's third seed as Washington clinched the No. 2 slot with a win against Tampa Bay earlier Thursday.
Brian Gionta and Brian Rolston scored in regulation while Martin Brodeur made 28 saves for the Devils, who have now won three of four following an untimely six-game slide.
Dany Heatley scored to force overtime with exactly one minute remaining in regulation and Jarkko Ruutu found the back of the net in the first period for the Senators, who were riding a franchise-record nine-game winning streak at home and three-game win streak overall. Alex Auld had 30 saves in defeat.
The Sens' recent stretch earned new head coach Cory Clouston a two-year contract through the 2010-11 season on Wednesday. Clouston took over the for the fired Craig Hartsburg on February 2 with the Senators mired in last place in the Northeast Division at 17-24-7. While Ottawa will miss the playoffs for the first time since the 1995-96 campaign, the team has responded to the coaching change by producing a mark of 19-10-4 under Clouston.
Shanahan's wrister escaped the grasp of Auld and found twine in the top right corner to begin the second round. Brodeur came back to stone Mike Fisher and Jamie Langenbrunner had a chance to win it, but Auld kept the pads together on a low shot.
Brodeur then sprawled to his right and deflected a Jason Spezza backhander up high for the win.
Ruutu was camped to Brodeur's left and was in position to put back the rebound off a Brian Lee slap shot from the right point for the early lead 4:13 into the game.
Gionta and Rolston swung the momentum New Jersey's way with goals 46 seconds apart in the second, but Heatley was able to capitalize on a mad scramble by Ottawa near the end of regulation.
Fisher got behind the defense and even a flailing Brodeur, but chipped a bouncing puck off the right post. The Senators retained possession, though, and Heatley was able to rip one from the slot to tie the game.
Game Notes
The Devils got forward Patrik Elias back after missing the last four games with a lower-body injury. Elias is second on the team in goals (31) and points (78) this season...New Jersey played in its final road game of the regular season and will close the campaign with Saturday's test against Carolina...The Devils are 23-15-3 as the guest this year and had lost six in a row on the road before winning in Buffalo this past Saturday...The Senators are 22-12-7 as the host this year and played their final home game of the season...Ottawa will complete its 2008-09 schedule with Saturday's test in Toronto...New Jersey completed the four-game season series sweep...The Devils have taken six in a row and nine of 11 from Ottawa and have won three straight and four of five in Canada's capital city.
<< Arnott gives Nashville shootout win over Red Wings
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joel Ward scored the equalizer with 59.3
seconds left in regulation and Jason Arnott had the deciding goal in the
shootout, as Nashville stayed in the playoff race with a key 4-3 win over
Detroit
<< Despite OT loss to Bruins, Montreal clinches playoff spot
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Recchi scored two goals, including the
game-winner in overtime, and dished out two assists, as the Boston Bruins
outlasted the Montreal Canadiens, 5-4, in a battle between Northeast Division
rivals
<< Panthers win, but are eliminated from playoff picture
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Booth scored the game-winner with under
five minutes left, but the Florida Panthers couldn't fight off elimination
despite a 3-2 victory over the Atlanta Thrashers.
Florida began the night two poin
<< Capitals double-up Lightning
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brooks Laich scored twice and Mike Green
registered a goal and two assists as the Washington Capitals held on to edge
the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-2, at St. Pete Times Forum.
David Steckel also tallied
Bulls draw closer to playoffs with thumping of Philadelphia >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tyrus Thomas and Ben Gordon each scored 24
points as Chicago inched closer to a playoff berth with a 113-99 victory over
slumping Philadelphia.
Derrick Rose added 16 points and eight assists, Brad Mille
Miami-Ohio and Boston University advance to Frozen Four final >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tommy Wingels registered two goals and an
assist as Miami-Ohio defeated Bemidji State, 4-1, in the semifinals of the
Frozen Four at Verizon Center.
Alden Hirschfeld and Bill Loupee also tallied fo
Granollers falls to Haas in Houston >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sixth-seeded Spaniard Marcel Granollers fell
to German Tommy Haas in second-round play Thursday at the $500,000 U.S. Men's
Clay Court Championships.
In a matchup of former titlists here, Granollers won t
Stars slip past Avalanche in SO >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Ribeiro scored the decisive goal in a wild
shootout, as the Dallas Stars topped the Colorado Avalanche, 3-2, at the Pepsi
Center.
In the shootout, Colorado's Wojtek Wolski went first and fooled Dal
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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