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02/10/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls will play their first home game in nearly three weeks when the rival Detroit Pistons enter the United Center tonight for a Central Division showdown.
Chicago returns to the Windy City after a moderately successful seven-game road trip. The Bulls went 4-3 on the swing, but ended the trek with a tough overtime loss to Dallas on Saturday.
Dirk Nowitzki scored 14 of his 44 points in the extra session to lift the Mavericks to a 115-114 decision, with the superstar forward sinking four crucial free throws in the final 15 seconds.
Ben Gordon led six Chicago players in double figures with 28 points, with Tyrus Thomas amassing 23 points and 12 rebounds in a losing cause and rookie Derrick Rose contributing 22 points for the Bulls.
Chicago, which also hosts Miami on Thursday in this brief two-game homestand, is 13-10 at the United Center this season and has dropped its last three home tests.
The Pistons have had their share of troubles in Chicago in recent years, however. Detroit has lost four straight games at the United Center, although the team had won 12 in a row as the visitor in this series prior to that skid.
Detroit has also dropped five of its last eight overall matchups and was dealt a 107-97 defeat at home by Phoenix on Sunday. Richard Hamilton and Allen Iverson netted 27 and 25 points, respectively, for the Pistons, who were coming off an overtime triumph at Milwaukee the night before. Rasheed Wallace finished with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
The Pistons have won their last three road games and are 13-10 as the visiting team this season.
In the lone meeting between these divisional foes on December 23 this season, Detroit posted a 104-98 win over the Bulls in the Motor City behind a career- high 40 points from Rodney Stuckey.
Stuckey had only eight points in Sunday's loss to Phoenix, however, and has been held to single digits in three of Detroit's lost four games.
<< Nuggets resume road trip in South Beach vs. Heat
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Northwest Division-leading Denver Nuggets hit a bump on
their eight-game road trip and will try to steer back on the right path
Tuesday evening against the Miami Heat at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Denver had a four-game w
<< Cavs hope to bounce back from first home loss in Indy vs. Pacers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams on opposite sides of the Central Division
spectrum get together this evening, as the Cleveland Cavaliers pay a visit to
the Indiana Pacers at Conseco Fieldhouse.
The Central-leading Cavs are coming off their firs
<< Cavs and 'Noles square off in ACC tussle
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second time in less than three
weeks, the Virginia Cavaliers and the Florida State Seminoles will meet in an
ACC tilt, this time in Tallahassee.
On January 24th, Florida State beat Virginia in Charl
<< State bragging rights on line, as Spartans visit Wolverines
Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - State and Big Ten rivals will collide in Ann
Arbor tonight as the Michigan Wolverines attempt to upset the ninth-ranked
Michigan State Spartans.
Michigan State owns a stellar 19-4 record this season, includin
Stars find Avery a home in Hartford; next stop Broadway? >>
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Stars have assigned outspoken left
wing Sean Avery to Hartford of the American Hockey League.
Hartford is the AHL affiliate of the New York Rangers, who have expressed an
interest in bringing Av
United brings back former MLS MVP in blockbuster trade with Rapids >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United acquired midfielder Christian
Gomez, goalkeeper Mike Graczyk, an international roster spot and salary cap
considerations from the Colorado Rapids in exchange for midfielder/defender
Ivan G
Coyotes recall Tikhonov, reassign Schlemko >>
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Coyotes recalled left winger
Viktor Tikhonov from their American Hockey League affiliate, the San Antonio
Rampage. In addition, defenseman David Schlemko has been re-assigned to the
Rampage
Bruins' Ryder to miss 2-3 weeks after facial surgery >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Bruins right wing Michael Ryder will miss
the next two to three weeks after undergoing successful facial surgery.
Ryder suffered multiple fractures of the frontal sinus when he took a high
stick to th
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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The AFC South and the NFC East are the favorite divisions to have the next Super Bowl champ among them in the NFL betting odds. But more down to the point, these football odds are in favor of the Indianapolis Colts, by far the strongest team in the AFC South, and the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC East.
Most sports fans would agree that these two teams top the list to win it all before the season even begins. In the BetUS Sportsbook football futures, the Colts are +800 in the odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Cowboys are sitting at +1000 and the Super Bowl XLIV champions New Orleans Saints at +900. In the AFC South, the Colts won the division for five straight years after the 2002 realignment, before the Tennessee Titans won it in 2008. But the Colts came back strong in 2009 to win the division again en route to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are the favorite to win the NFC East, as well as to advance far into the post season. The Cowboys won the division last season before their horrendous loss in the NFC Divisional playoff to Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. But the ‘Boys will take that loss humbly and be ready for the playoffs this time around.
The NFC South is also very strong, at +600 in the NFL futures, considering that it is home to the defending Super Bowl champions. However, some predictions have the Atlanta Falcons with possibilities of claiming the divisional title this season in place of the Saints, as no team has won back-to-back division championships since the division realignment took place. Let’s not overlook the AFC North at +500. As TO goes to Cincinnati to join Chad OchoCinco and Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, this team looks to claim the division title again. And it is likely they will do so. The Bengals lost in the AFC Wild Card spot in a hard-fought battle against the New York Jets last season. Lest not forget the Pittsburgh Steelers, the XLII Super Bowl Champions… All these teams present interesting odds and matchups for the upcoming season, but the safest and surest bet seems to be with the Colts in the AFC South and the Cowboys in the NFC East. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
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