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02/02/2012 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derrick Rose scored 15 of his 32 points in the fourth quarter as the Chicago Bulls held on to take down the New York Knicks, 105-102.
Carmelo Anthony had an opportunity to tie the game at the final buzzer, but his long three-point try from the right wing was way off the mark.
Rose also added 13 assists while Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver netted 16 points apiece for the Bulls, who rebounded after Wednesday's lopsided loss in Philadelphia. They moved to 2-2 on their nine-game road trip.
Amare Stoudemire had 34 points and 11 rebounds while Anthony added 26 points and six boards for New York, which has lost 10 of its last 12 games.
Rose carried the Bulls early in the fourth, scoring the first seven points and 14 of the first 18 for Chicago as the visitors took a 95-88 lead midway through the final stanza.
But the Knicks did a stellar job of defending Rose late as the reigning NBA MVP was limited to just a point in the final 5:53 of game action.
An 8-2 spurt, capped by Landry Fields' layup, pulled the Knicks within a point, 101-100, with 23.4 seconds remaining.
Korver nailed a pair of free throws to make it a three-point game. Following a New York timeout, Stoudemire had a wide-open look to tie it from the top of the arc, but his shot clanked off the side of the rim.
Taj Gibson made 1-of-2 from the line to make it 104-100 with 9.3 to go, but Anthony was fouled with 6.3 remaining. He made both foul shots to make it 104-102.
Rose, who came in 35-of-37 from the charity stripe in the fourth quarter this season, made 1-of-2 from the line to keep New York's hopes alive, but Anthony's desperation trey at the buzzer wasn't close.
Chicago shot 61.9 percent in the opening quarter and took a 29-25 lead into the second. Korver scored nine points to pace the Bulls.
The Bulls closed the opening half on an 11-4 run, taking a 55-44 advantage into the break. Rose nearly had a double-double by halftime with 10 points and nine assists while Stoudemire kept the Knicks within shouting distance by posting 18 first-half points.
The Knicks rallied in the third quarter, connecting on 10 of their first 11 shots as they pulled within 66-64 midway through the stanza. The Bulls took a 77-75 advantage into the final quarter.
Game Notes
The Bulls moved to 10-5 outside the United Center...The Bulls were without forward Luol Deng (wrist) and guard Richard Hamilton (groin/thigh)...New York had just six points from its bench, all by Toney Douglas...Joakim Noah had 10 points and nine rebounds for the Bulls.
<< Murray State stays perfect in win over Redhawks
Murray, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Isaiah Canaan had 32 points and the 10th-ranked
Murray State Racers remained perfect with an 81-73 victory over the Southeast
Missouri State Redhawks.
The only unbeaten team left in the Division I ranks traile
<< No. 6 Kentucky crushes Ole Miss
Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bria Goss poured in 19 points as No. 6
Kentucky remained unbeaten in conference play thanks to an 82-41 victory over
Mississippi.
Kastine Evans had 12 points and seven steals, while both A'dia Ma
<< Ward sensational as 'Canes finish off season sweep of Bruins
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cam Ward was sensational between the pipes,
stopping a season-high 47 shots for his third shutout of the year, as
the Carolina Hurricanes completed the franchise's first-ever season sweep
of the
<< Wellwood's OT goal lifts Jets over Lightning
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Wellwood netted the winner at 3:14 of
overtime to give Winnipeg a 2-1 decision over Tampa Bay.
Blake Wheeler escaped a Bolts checker along the left-wing boards, moved to the
net and slipped a pass a
Wild blank Avalanche >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Niklas Backstrom stopped all 37 shots he
faced -- including 17 in the third period -- as Minnesota slipped by Colorado,
1-0, at Pepsi Center.
Greg Zanon's first-period goal was enough for the Wild, who
Backcourt leads Gators past Gamecocks >>
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenny Boynton netted 24 points and Bradley
Beal finished with 17 points and 11 rebounds as No. 12 Florida downed South
Carolina, 74-66.
Erving Walker added 14 points and seven assists for the Gator
Saint Mary's downs San Diego to remain perfect in WCC >>
Moraga, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rob Jones posted 28 points and eight rebounds,
and No. 18 Saint Mary's pulled out an 84-73 win over San Diego to remain
undefeated in West Coast Conference play.
Stephen Holt scored 23 points, while
Gagner matches Oiler greats with 8-point night >>
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sam Gagner joined the likes of Wayne Gretzky
and Paul Coffey as he posted eight points to lead the Oilers to an 8-4 win
over the Chicago Blackhawks.
Gagner, who came into the game with just five goals
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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