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02/20/2007 - East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The now top-ranked Wisconsin Badgers have made the trip to East Lansing for tonight's Big Ten Conference clash with the Michigan State Spartans.
Five consecutive wins have enabled Wisconsin to move to 26-2 overall and 12-1 in conference, and the Badgers remain tied with the Ohio State Buckeyes atop the Big Ten standings. The most recent of the five victories occurred on Saturday for Wisconsin, as it cruised to a 75-49 decision over Penn State. The Badgers' 26 wins are the most in the nation and the most in one season in program history. The team has reached the top of the national poll for the first-time ever.
Michigan State hasn't been quite as successful as its counterpart today, as the Spartans have split their 12 Big Ten games. They are on a bit of a roll, however, as they have won two straight by double figures, including an 81-49 thrashing of Iowa on Saturday. Michigan State is now 16-1 at home, an obvious reason for confidence tonight.
The Spartans hold a 65-54 series advantage over the Badgers, and Michigan State has won two of the last three meetings.
If anyone is going to steal National Player of the Year honors away from Texas freshman Kevin Durant, it figures to be Wisconsin standout Alando Tucker. The outstanding forward has scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive outings, including a 22-point effort against Penn State on Saturday. Kammron Taylor pitched in 18 points for the Badgers, who got 11 points from Jason Bohannon off the bench. Wisconsin connected on 51.9 percent of its field goal attempts in that clash, including a stellar 12-of-23 showing from behind the arc. Tucker is averaging 20.4 ppg this season, and he can get his own shot at any time. Taylor checks in with 13.1 ppg on 42.1 percent shooting from three-point range for the Badgers, who are limiting opponents to 57.8 ppg on 40.3 percent shooting from the field.
Drew Neitzel is the leading scorer for Michigan State, as he is netting 18.1 ppg on 40.4 percent shooting from three-point range and 90.4 percent accuracy from the foul line. Also, Neitzel has dished out 118 assists against only 59 turnovers. Raymar Morgan is the only other double-digit scorer in the lineup, as he is posting 11.1 ppg. Strong defense is clearly the key to success for the Spartans, as they are holding foes to 56.0 ppg on 37.9 percent shooting from the field. Neitzel scored 17 points in the blowout victory over Iowa last time out. Morgan pitched in 16 points for Michigan State, which connected on 57.9 percent of its field goal attempts and limited Iowa to 34.1 percent efficiency from the floor.
<< Falcons soar into Sin City
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No longer the only member of the Mountain
West Conference among the nationally-ranked, the Air Force Falcons put their
three-game win streak on the line tonight as they visit the UNLV Runnin'
Rebels
<< Toronto Argonauts (CFL)
Signed quarterbacks Mike McMahon and Tom Arth.
<< Lakers' Radmanovic out at least eight weeks
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Lakers forward Vladimir
Radmanovic will be sidelined at least eight weeks after separating his right
shoulder.
The Los Angeles Times reported that the 26-year-old Radmanovic sustaine
<< Chargers add Rivera to coaching staff
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New San Diego Chargers head coach Norv
Turner named former Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera the team's
linebackers coach.
With his contract set to expire next week, the Bears announc
Argonauts ink QB McMahon >>
Toronto, Ontario (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Argonauts signed former NFL
quarterback Mike McMahon on Tuesday.
In 29 career NFL games, spread over five seasons with Detroit and
Philadelphia, McMahon completed 229 of 515
Pistons visit Central Division-rival Milwaukee >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Central Division-leading Detroit Pistons try to
get back on the winning track tonight when they hit the road to visit the
Milwaukee Bucks at the Bradley Center.
Detroit had its seven-game winning streak halted with las
Nuggets, Spurs clash in San Antonio >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Antonio Spurs have recovered from their eight-game
road trip and return to the AT&T Center this evening to host the Denver
Nuggets.
San Antonio, which is second in the Southwest standings, went 4-4 on the swing
a
Wild try to end futility against Dallas >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Wild will try to stop their longest current
losing streak against any team in the league when they host the Dallas Stars
this evening at Xcel Energy Center for the final time this season.
Minnesota has droppe
Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds and the betting line and figure out where they’ve been and where they are going to go.
MySportsbook.com put up the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds late on Sunday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 6.5 points and a total betting line at 47.5 points.
Since then, however, the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds have seen a good deal of movement and you’ll want to be on top of where they are likely to move to make sure you get the best line value for the big game.
Since opening, the Super Bowl 2009 betting lines went to Steelers -7 in the span of roughly 3 hours but were quickly bought back down just minutes later to 6.5 again.
After that is took about 5-6 more hours before the betting line went back to -7 where it has sat for a while now and is likely to remain. The opening betting total of 47.5 was bet down right after the line became available and went to 47 within minutes.
Roughly a day later it has been bet even further down to the 46.5 tally it currently is set at.
Roughly 60% of gamblers seem to be on the Cardinals here so the point spread will be bet down and a 7.5 would not last very long at all with many taking the early 6.5 in hopes of finding a potential middle in the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds.
If you like Arizona and see a 7.5, I’d take it as soon as possible because it’s unlikely to last. For Pittsburgh backers, the -7 might be the best you’ll be able to find but a 6.5 is definitely possible close to game time.
Regarding the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds for the total, most tracked gamblers are already on the over and with those who took the under 47.5 already securing a middle on the over 46.5, the only way I see it moving is back up to 47 so if you like the over, I’d recommend betting now.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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