Alabama visits Kentucky in SEC action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2010 - Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Alabama Crimson Tide invade Rupp Arena this evening for an SEC clash with the third-ranked Kentucky Wildcats.

Alabama is a respectable 13-10 overall, but that record is overshadowed by a 3-6 mark versus league opponents. The Crimson Tide have suffered three consecutive defeats, including a 74-67 setback at Ole Miss on Saturday. The two previous losses to Auburn and Florida both came by one point.

Kentucky opened this season with 19 consecutive wins before finally tasting defeat against South Carolina in late January. Since that setback, the Wildcats have recorded three consecutive victories, the most recent of which came on Saturday over LSU in an 81-55 final. Coach John Calipari's club is now 7-1 in SEC action and carries a 14-0 home record into this evening's affair.

The Wildcats own a commanding 98-35 series advantage over the Crimson Tide, which includes wins in the last two meetings.

The Crimson Tide depend heavily on the duo of Mikhail Torrance and JaMychal Green to be productive at the offensive each time out. Torrance leads the club with 15.3 ppg and 128 assists. As for Green, he provides 14.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg and 47 blocks while shooting 51.2 percent from the floor. Alabama is generating 68.2 ppg while limiting opponents to 62.9 ppg on 41.5 percent field goal efficiency. In the seven-point loss to Ole Miss on Saturday, Green scored 18 points and grabbed seven rebounds, while Tony Mitchell netted 16 points. Torrance finished with 12 points and seven assists for the Tide, who committed twice as many turnovers as the Rebels and were outscored 25-13 from the foul line. The negatives clearly overshadowed 50 percent shooting from the floor.

For much of this season, Kentucky freshman John Wall has been hyped as the best player on the Wildcats roster and perhaps the top performer in all of college basketball. Recently, however, fellow rookie DeMarcus Cousins has emerged as the true standout on a loaded Kentucky team. Cousins has paced the squad in both scoring and rebounding in four consecutive games and is now averaging the same amount of points as Wall (16.4 ppg). The big man is shooting 54.2 percent from the field and grabbing 10.0 rpg, while Wall, a point guard, has dished out 146 assists to complement 41 steals. Patrick Patterson provides 15.1 ppg for the Wildcats, who are generating 82.3 ppg while surrendering 65.9 ppg on 38.1 percent shooting by opponents. In the romp over LSU on Saturday, Cousins racked up 19 points and 13 rebounds. Patterson added 16 points, while Wall struggled his way to six points.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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