A Sweet Derby for Sidney's Candy

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Here are five reasons why Sidney's Candy will win the 136th Kentucky Derby.

First, he's the fastest horse in the race. Not only did the son of Candy Ride break a track record as a two-year-old at Del Mar, he has consistently put up the best speed figures of any three-year-old outside of Eskendereya.

Second, the race sets up perfectly for him even from post 20 as there is absolutely zero speed from the four horses that break directly to his inside. Look for jockey Joe Talamo to have Sidney's Candy sitting about two or three lengths off Conveyance, Line of David, and quite possibly Paddy O'Prado in the early portion of the race and then power his way to the lead at the top of the stretch - think Big Brown two years ago.

Third, the chestnut colt has absolutely adored Churchill Downs. A blistering 59 4/5 five-furlong breeze on April 17 was followed by a sensational 1:11 3/5 six- furlong trek over the slop on April 24. In fact, his three, four and five- furlong splits in that second work were quicker than the fastest works of the day at each of those three distances.

The one great equalizer could be the track condition as heavy rains are expected to hit the area Saturday morning and continue throughout the day. The surface will be a slick one come post time but that won't affect Sidney's Candy one bit. After the April 24 workout, Talamo stated the wet track will not be a problem, and based on the horse's pedigree, the off-going could actually help.

Fourth, trainer John Sadler has been on fire of late winning three straight with Sidney's Candy, along with the Arkansas Derby (Line of David) and the Derby Trial (Hurricane Ike). He also saddled Emmy Darling to win at Churchill Downs last Sunday.

Finally, first-time dirt from synthetics has been a key angle in recent months as Lookin At Lucky (Rebel Stakes), Line of David (Arkansas Derby), Conveyance (Southwest Stakes) and American Lion (Illinois Derby) all garnered important three-year-old stakes victories this year. And don't forget, four of the first five finishers in last year's Kentucky Derby (Mine That Bird, Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem and Chocolate Candy) raced over synthetics the majority of the time prior to the first Saturday in May.

Sidney's Candy will win the 2010 Kentucky Derby by at least two lengths. The key will be finding the other three colts to finish second, third and fourth.

WHICH THREE HORSES WILL FILL OUT THE SUPERFECTA?

In answering such a question, it's important to figure out how the race will be run.

There is enough speed to ensure a decent pace but don't expect the horses to fly early on. The sloppy conditions will keep the fractions relatively slow, say 47 and change for the first half-mile.

Speed usually holds better on an off-track even though Mine That Bird closed like a horse possessed in last year's race. That's not to say Conveyance, Line of David and Paddy O'Prado will hold on for second, third and fourth, but they might not falter as fast as they would under normal circumstances.

A boatload of stalkers falling into two distinct groups will sit anywhere between two and five lengths off the pace. The A-list is highlighted by three colts with solid chances of sticking around through the stretch, while the B- list consists of four that will wilt when challenged by the first set.

Super Saver, American Lion and Lookin At Lucky make up the "A" group and Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Noble's Promise and Mission Impazible fall into the "B" set.

With so many three-year-olds expected to stay close to the lead, the horses near the back of the pack will have a lot to do around the far turn, especially with tons of muddy dirt being kicked in their faces.

Those horses - nine in total - could also be placed into two separate categories as only a few have a chance to hit the board.

The horses that are in over their heads are Homeboykris, Backtalk, Make Music for Me, Devil May Care, Dean's Kitten and Dublin.

The colts with a shot are Stately Victor, Awesome Act and Ice Box

Based on the above information, the three superfecta slots behind Sidney's Candy could be filled by only six horses - Super Saver, American Lion and Lookin At Lucky, Stately Victor, Awesome Act and Ice Box.

Let's take a historical perspective of which types of horses usually finish in those slots.

In the last eight runnings of the Derby, only 10 of the 33 (there was a dead- heat for fourth in 2006) superfecta finishers were more than 10 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, and eight of the 10 (80%) were only able to run first, second, third or fourth when the first four furlongs were run in 46 1/5 seconds or faster.

Only three were victorious (Street Sense, Giacomo and Mine That Bird) while the other seven finished either third or fourth. Based on those figures, one can assume that Ice Box will have too much ground to make up to finish in the place spot.

So, which of the other five have the best chance of running second? Let's run down the list.

As is the case with Ice Box, Stately Victor might find himself with too much to do late in the race but the Blue Grass winner must be considered as he's looked fantastic all week. He's definitely coming into his own at the right time and could easily finish second since he's bred to love the wet going.

Super Saver and American Lion have decent chances to pick up second-place money as both colts should be able to work out decent trips. Super Saver has already won a race in the slop while American Lion is bred to handle off-tracks.

Lookin At Lucky is a prime candidate to hit the board, as the morning line favorite has won six of his eight career starts. However, he's run into trouble in three of his last four races and post one will not help his cause.

There have been mixed signals concerning Awesome Act of late. The wet track should be in his favor and the Derby is his third start off a four-month layoff. On the other hand, his trainer is not 100% confident the Gotham winner will move forward going 1 1/4-miles.

THE KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER

For those with a $100 bankroll, I suggest betting $52 to win on Sidney's Candy.

In addition, play a $1 superfecta bet with Sidney's Candy on top of Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, Stately Victor, American Lion and Awesome Act, over the same five plus Ice Box for third, and all six for fourth.

For those who don't have the time to look at each horse's numbers, the bets are as follows: $52 to win on the 20, along with a $1 superfecta - 20/1, 4, 6, 7, 16/1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 16/, 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 16.

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What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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